Rawalpindi : The implementation of integrated vector control measures, social mobilization and inter-sectoral coordination can greatly help prevent spread of dengue virus in the coming months.
According to a Dengue Predictive Model 2020 prepared by a team of specialists from Rawalpindi Medical University, peak of dengue cases during 2020 would most likely be in the same localities that reported escalated number of cases last year.
The predictive model has been prepared with the help of modern research tools and provides a line of action to prevent spread of dengue virus in the Rawalpindi district.
Like elsewhere in Pakistan, the dengue virus usually surfaces in the Rawalpindi district in the months of September and October.
The predictive model was actually drawn in May this year by using machine learning technique. Numerous tools like Pandas, Numpy, Matplotlib, Sklearn and Pylab were used for data wrangling.
The residential data of 12,192 dengue cases admitted in three teaching hospitals including Holy Family Hospital, Benazir Bhutto Hospital and District Headquarters Hospital affiliated with Rawalpindi Medical University was employed for this purpose.
The weather data for the Rawalpindi was extracted from archive of Texas AM University. Ordinary Linear Sequential (OLS) Regression was used to estimate the relationship of dengue cases reported during 2019 with weekly average temperature and cases to be reported during 2020 in the Rawalpindi district. It concluded that “The dengue predictive model 2020 drawn for the Rawalpindi district will really be helpful to reduce dengue cases by application of appropriate preventive measures in high risk zones by the concerned authorities.