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Fitch revises up 2021 global GDP growth to 6.3%

  • June 15, 2021

Fitch Ratings revised up its global gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for this year to 6.3%, according to its Global Economic Outlook report released Tuesday.

The rating agency now expects the world economy to grow 0.2 percentage points higher than its previous projection of 6.1% in the report published in March.

The economic growth forecast for most developed economies was raised – the US revised to 6.8% from 6.2%, the eurozone to 5% from 4.7%, and the UK to 6.6% from 5%.

Only Japan’s forecast saw a reduction to 2.5% from 3.6%, while China’s remained at 8.4%.

Emerging markets, excluding China, on the other hand, saw their growth estimate lowered to 5.9% from 6%.

“Face-to-face services activity has picked up in recent months in Europe and the US as new COVID-19 cases have declined, vaccination rates risen and restrictions eased,” the report said.

“Alongside the synchronous global recovery, this has fueled a sharp rise in global commodity prices, similar to that seen in 2010. Shortages in the global semiconductor market are adding to price increases,” it added.

Fitch said it expects Turkey to grow 6.3% this year, saying its economy continued to exceed expectations, as growth rose to 7.1% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2021, supported by domestic demand and improving net trade, thus maintaining strong momentum from the final quarter of 2020.

“Weakening private consumption on slowing credit growth will be partly balanced by a gradual recovery in tourism in 2H21,” it said.

The agency warned that currency weakness, high producer price inflation that reflects increased commodity prices, pandemic-related supply disruptions, and high inflation expectations will boost the rate of inflation until the last quarter of this year.

It said it expects a gradual decline in Turkey’s inflation to 12% by the end of 2022 and 9.5% at the end of 2023.

Fitch forecast that Turkey’s GDP will grow by 3.7% next year and 4.5% the year after.

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