Can Imran Khan win Punjab?
With only one year left in the next general elections, for the first time in 40 years, politics would not revolve around pro- and anti-Bhutto, but around pro- and anti-Sharif, particularly in Punjab, where the ruling Pakistan Muslim League, PML-N has a firm control since 1984.
Can the rising popularity graph of Imran Khan be a matter of concern for the Sharif family, who many believe were brought into politics to end Bhutto’s politics in the late 1970s.
The late Benazir Bhutto, despite huge popularity, could not cause major dent to the Sharifs for three reasons: (1) Establishment sided with Sharifs, by backing Sharif-led Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI); (2) She did not make Punjab her political base; and (3) Sharif’s policy to go after vulnerable development and progress enabled them to make ground in Punjab politics. Despite criticism, the politics of Motorway and Metro did attract Punjab’s middle class.
Imran Khan has come a long way to this position where he now feels that he has a good chance of causing upset in Sharif’s stronghold i.e. Punjab. The reasons behind Imran’s popularity are: (1) New voters particularly youth, women and even families who prior to 2013 elections had never cast their votes; (2) Decline in PPP’s politics after Benazir Bhutto’s assassination; and (3) his reputation as Mr Clean and “yet-to-be-tested” politician.
Imran takes the credit for making corruption a national issue and has never been so confident of clean sweeping the upcoming polls as he seems after pronouncement of the Supreme Court verdict in Panama case.
But, politics is not merely all about issues or ideology, as it involves a lot of skills and strategy too. Imran and his PTI do stand a chance, provided he plays his cards well and does not make same mistakes that he committed in 2013.
Taking few lessons from 2013 elections, he has now practically abandoned the romance of an overnight change through new, young and clean faces. He is now going after traditional electables to get maximum seats in the Punjab. There is an element of risk involved in it and that is one of the reasons why there is a mixed reaction in his party’s rank and file over accepting PPP’s former federal or provincial ministers and advisers, etc.
In another development, he has also brought major changes in party’s election rules in a bid to minimise risk of any major split in the party. But, unlike in 2013, there doesn’t seem much enthusiasm among party workers and leaders about the June-12 party elections. Some of the party founding members like Hamid Khan, who is author of the PTI constitution, are not even in the race.
These two major changes in Imran’s politics of ‘Tabdeeli’ (Change) from the one in 2013, came in view of the setbacks he received in the last elections. Whether these are the right moves or not need serious debate as the change in his tactics is contradictory to his claim of anti-status quo approach.
His main challenger, PML-N or Sharifs, despite being in power for long and still having a firm control in Centre and Punjab, have started feeling the heat. It may not be for the first time that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif or the PML-N is facing accountability. Even if we include nine years of former president, General (retd) Pervez Musharraf’s government, the party and the family never faced such an embarrassment before an independent judiciary for which the PML-N and Sharifs also fought.
This is also for the first time that they are facing accountability in their own tenure and if the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) summons Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz, it would be for the first time that the PM and his children would go through a judicial review in his own government. It has its own positives in a democratic system, but at the same time, it can also ruin his long political career.
The PML-N still has an advantage as it has powerful organisation at the union council level, which resulted in major victories in the last local government, Cantonment Boards and by-elections.
Normally, political surveys are not very reliable, but people generally believe that if there is a serious challenger for Sharifs in today’s politics, it is Imran Khan. Even the PML-N leaders also admit it in their private conversations.
What kind of team Imran is looking for to win over the Punjab? His aggressive politics has also helped him in keeping the momentum, but his biggest drawback is his number 2 and 3, who are not on one page over the party issues, which causes problems for him in the Punjab.
At present, he is depending on three key figures in Punjab: Jehangir Tareen, Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Aleem Khan. All three are part of his panel. Even Chaudhry Sarwar, Ejaz Chaudhry and Mahmood Rasheed are not included in his ‘core team’.
Qureahi joined the PTI months after he left the PPP, when he quit as foreign minister during the last PPP government. It was the right choice for both Imran as well as Qureshi. He not only has strong constituency in southern Punjab, but also has his followers as a ‘Pir’ in interior of Sindh.
Qureshi soon became the second most powerful leader in the PTI, after Imran. But, within the PTI, he has serious differences with another powerful leader, someone who is more close to PTI chairman than him Shah Mehmood, and he is none other than Jehangir Tareen.
In order to avoid internal rift, Imran decided to include both in his panel and on the same position. The two leaders have been given the task to win over the electables in Punjab, as the PTI leader knows that road to Islamabad starts from Lahore.
The trio of Imran, Shah Mehmood and Jehangir Tareen has so far been able to create dent in the PPP, but unable to break the PML-N. Prominent among those who had joined the PTI from the PPP include Sumsam Bokhari, Raja Riaz, Firdous Ashiq Awan, Ghanzaffar Gill and Gondal brothers.
But, Imran wanted someone like Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan, Nadeem Afzal Chan and Qamaruzaman Kaira, the three outspoken PPP faces and stalwarts in Punjab.
Early this week, two more PPP leaders, Gondal brothers joined the PTI. Nazar Gondal remained a federal minister in the PPP’s previous government while his brother was an MNA. Few days back, former federal minister Firdous Ashiq Awan also joined the PTI.
The PPP is worst affected as it is fast losing its leaders and workers in Punjab and job for old guards like Yusuf Raza Gilani, Qamaruzaman Kaira, Nadeem Afzal Chan or Aitzaz Ahsan has become more challenging.
There are also reports that many more PPP leaders are in contact with PTI leadership particularly Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Jehangir Tareen and likely to join the PTI soon.
Many within the PTI support the electables politics, and believe that if Imran really want to break the mighty power base of Sharifs, he must go with the electables, and once he gets power he can bring about a major change in the system.
Others say that the PML-N would have an advantage if Imran goes in the elections with electables as Sharifs and the PML-N are better strategists and can place better candidates. If Imran decides to go with young and committed PTI leaders, workers would be more motivated and charges.
There is nothing wrong in accepting leaders from other parties, provided they did not carry any ‘corrupt baggage’. The danger of accepting controversial people with a track record of joining one party or another is the chance of them leaving the PTI during crisis.
Imran has created a very strong vote bank of his own in almost every constituency. He even made inroads into the MQM constituencies in Karachi. If his party secured nearly 80 lakh voters in 2013 elections, it is because of the youth, women and families, majority of who came to polling stations for the first time, just because of Imran.
So, one wonders why he went after electables when the PTI emerged as the second biggest party not on the basis of seats it won, but vote it pulled.
Therefore, Imran has taken another risk of playing on the PML-N strong point of the politics of electables, but question remains whether he will be able to win Punjab in a bid to win Pakistan in 2018?
The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.
Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO
Article source: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/209892-Can-Imran-Khan-win-Punjab